New Mayo Clinic Tool Predicts Alzheimer’s-Related Cognitive Decline Before Symptoms Start

Alzheimer’s disease doesn’t begin when memory problems show up. In reality, the brain changes linked to Alzheimer’s can start 10–20 years before symptoms appear. Until now, it has been hard to estimate who is most likely to develop cognitive decline—and when.

A new Mayo Clinic research model is aiming to change that.

What the new Mayo Clinic model does

Mayo Clinic researchers recently created a tool that estimates a person’s risk of Alzheimer’s-related cognitive decline years before any symptoms begin. It uses two main kinds of information:

1. Amyloid PET scan resultsThese scans measure amyloid plaque buildup in the brain—one of the earliest biological markers of Alzheimer’s. The model uses amyloid levels as a continuous value, not just “positive vs negative.”

   
   

2. Genetic risk (including APOE status)Certain APOE gene types increase Alzheimer’s risk. The model combines genetic risk with imaging and age/sex data for more personalized predictions.
   

Using these inputs, the tool estimates:

• 10-year risk of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia

• Lifetime risk of developing MCI or dementia
  

Why this matters

1. It gives “risk clarity” earlier than ever

Many people want to know, “Am I heading toward Alzheimer’s?” But standard clinic visits and memory tests can’t detect early Alzheimer’s biology.

This model helps estimate risk before memory problems start, when prevention and planning may still make a real difference.

2. It could improve who gets monitored—and how closely

Some patients may benefit from:

• more frequent cognitive screening

• more aggressive risk-factor management

• earlier referral to memory specialistsbased on their predicted risk trajectory.

  
  

3. It supports earlier treatment decisions

With newer Alzheimer’s therapies aimed at early-stage disease, identifying high-risk individuals before decline begins may help the right people access evaluation and options sooner.

What this tool does not mean

It’s important to keep expectations realistic.

• This is not a diagnosis.It estimates risk; it doesn’t say someone “has Alzheimer’s.”

• It’s not yet routine for everyone.Amyloid PET scans and genetic testing are usually done when there’s a clear clinical reason, and they require thoughtful counseling.

• Risk is not destiny.Even people with higher amyloid levels or genetic risk do not always develop dementia—especially if other health factors are well controlled.
  

Who might benefit most from this kind of prediction

This model was built using long-term data from cognitively normal adults followed over many years. It may be most helpful for people who are:

• Concerned about memory decline due to family history

• Having subtle cognitive changes that aren’t clearly dementia

• Considering whether a dementia work-up is appropriate

• Being evaluated in a specialty memory clinic or research setting
  

The bigger picture: prevention still matters

Even as science improves prediction, the biggest protective factors remain familiar and powerful:

• treating sleep apnea and sleep disorders

• controlling blood pressure, diabetes, and cholesterol

• staying physically active

• maintaining social engagement

• protecting hearing

• moderating alcohol

• addressing depression and stress
  

These steps reduce dementia risk overall—regardless of genetics.

How Woodside Internal Medicine can help

At Woodside Internal Medicine, we take brain health seriously—because cognitive decline affects not only memory, but independence and quality of life.

For patients in Carmel, Zionsville, Westfield, and Greater Indianapolis, we can help with:

• early cognitive screening when there are concerns

• identifying and treating reversible contributors (sleep apnea, thyroid disorders, B12 deficiency, vascular risks)

• personalized prevention plans based on your health profile

• coordination with neurology or memory specialists when advanced testing is appropriate
  

If you’re worried about memory changes or family risk, we’re here to guide you through the right next steps—clearly and without alarm. Connect with us.

Bottom line

This new Mayo Clinic model is a major step toward predicting Alzheimer’s-related cognitive decline before symptoms begin. It doesn’t mean everyone needs advanced testing now—but it does move us closer to a future where brain-health risk can be measured early, personalized, and proactively managed.

If you have questions about your cognitive health or risk factors, we’re happy to talk.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not replace personalized medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Alzheimer’s risk assessment and imaging/genetic testing should be discussed with a qualified healthcare provider.